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Brexit 'could cut Scottish GDP by 9%'

08 February 2018

The North East of England and the West Midlands - both areas that voted to leave the European Union - will be hit hardest by Brexit, according to government impact studies. Even if Britain remains in the single market, the North's economic growth would be 2.5 per cent lower than if it remained in the EU.

The detail of the studies comes after the papers were leaked to Buzzfeed last week.

The SNP's Stephen Gethins asked her: "The Scottish Government analysis has shown that a "no deal" scenario could cost Scotland up to 8.5 per cent of GDP".

MPs have now been able to to view the documents in the House of Commons library.

MPs who have seen the documents said they showed every region of the United Kingdom would be affected negatively whatever the deal.

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Jude Kirton-Darling, Labour MEP for the North East of England, added: "As disquieting as this may be, it is unfortunately only the beginning of a string of very bad news to come out of the leaked impact assessment papers, and the direct result of the Tories being incapable of negotiating a Brexit deal that won't drain all money and economic prospects out of the North East".

Northern Ireland would be the third-worst affected of the UK's regions by a no-deal Brexit - however the secret analysis, which is now viewable to all MPs only in a confidential reading room in Westminster, does not model the impact of a hard border between the North and the Republic.

Michel Barnier's warning that trade barriers are " unavoidable" if Britain leaves the single market and the customs union has been reinforced by EU briefings that December's fudge on Irish border options will be hard to sustain.

Northern Ireland would suffer an 8 per cent dip in growth after a free trade deal, a 12 per cent dip in the event of "no deal", and a 2.5 per cent fall in the single market.

The south-west, Yorkshire and the south-east are judged to be the least likely to be affected, as well as the capital.

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"Government analysis suggests that Northern Ireland could be cost up to 12% of its GDP". Does she believe any analysis she has seen? "And is this too high a price to pay to stop a Tory civil war breaking out?" he said.

"It is important to state that the UK government wants to achieve a good deal for the UK that protects the economic integrity of the UK", she added.

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: "The government's own research is now showing that Brexit will be an economic disaster for every part of the UK".

MEP Seb Dance said it was "cynicism of the worst kind to pretend this is what people voted for". "They should be allowed a vote on the final deal and a chance to exit from Brexit". To see this figure in black and white however is a real shock. The findings suggests that London will get off most lightly from Brexit.

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Brexit 'could cut Scottish GDP by 9%'