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Crude Oil Price Forecast September 11, 2017, Technical Analysis

11 September 2017

There should be a significant amount of support in that area, but part of this is probably due to weekend profit taking and of course the fact that hurricane Irma won't be doing as much destruction in the Gulf of Mexico.

In equities, shares of Teva Pharmaceutical ( TEVA ) were 11% higher pre-bell after the company named Kare Schultz as CEO.

As of Wednesday, about 3.8 million barrels of daily refining capacity, or about 20 percent, was shut in, although a number of the refineries, as well as petroleum handling ports, were in the process of restarting.

Analysts said oil prices fell as a result of low refining activity following Harvey, which sharply reduced demand for crude oil.

Speculators anticipate shortages of road fuels and heating oil since many USA refineries are still offline or operating at reduced rates after extensive flooding. The production has increased by 1.1 million barrels per day since bottoming around July 2016.

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That led to a windfall for some oil bears who had correctly read Hurricane Irma's impact on WTI.

Brent crude futures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the United States, were up 24 cents at $54.73 a barrel, just shy of their Friday peak of $54.79 a barrel, their highest level since April.

The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 4.6 million barrels last week, marking the first weekly inventory build in ten.

Despite the agreement, the oil price (WTI) has suffered a major selloff on the day of the agreement extension and was down around 3 percent by the end of the day. At settlement, Brent was $6.30 a barrel higher, with intraday trades indicating a larger premium versus WTI.

The WTI Crude Oil market fell apart on Friday, as it looks to be reaching towards the $47.50 level. The difference between the two crude benchmarks is a key trade for many speculators.

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Seasonally, October and November are weak months for crude oil.

Investors and analysts were also looking ahead to monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency later this week.

Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's state oil company, will cut supplies to Asia, the world's biggest oil consuming region, by 1.8 million barrels in October, with the reductions affecting mostly customers in Japan, the source said.

Portfolio managers also increased their net long position in European gasoil by 2.8 million tonnes to 15.7 million tonnes, the highest since at least 2014.

But while hedge funds see the impact on fuel supplies lingering for some time, they are more confident that crude producers will find a way around the refinery bottleneck.

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Crude Oil Price Forecast September 11, 2017, Technical Analysis