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Oil prices bounce but stuck near 2017 lows on supply overhang

18 June 2017

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for July delivery fell 0.04% to $44.44 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent was last quoted at $46.91 a barrel.

"Our first look at 2018 suggests that U.S. crude production will grow year-on-year. but such is the dynamism of this extraordinary, very diverse industry it is possible that growth will be faster", the report said.

Oil stocks are near record highs in some parts of the world, and producers that are not part of the OPEC deal are increasing output.

As a result, OPEC raised the expected demand for its crude this year by 100,000 bbl/d to 32.02 million bbl/d.

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Late last month, OPEC said it would extend an 1.8 million-barrel-a-day cut to oil output by nine months, though March 2018, after the November deal failed to fully clear a global oversupply in oil, which has been keeping prices relatively low.

Prices then came under pressure following the American Petroleum Institute (API) data with a headline build of 2.75 million barrels.

"OPEC 2017 year-to-date exports are only down by 0.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from the October 2016 baseline", analysts at AB Bernstein said in a note.

US crude inventories rose 2.753 million barrels at the end of last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday, well above the 2.739 million barrels decline expected.

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The market wasn't caught by surprise by the IEA data, as on Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that USA crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels last week, while gasoline supplies increased by 1.8 million barrels. OPEC also revised down its forecast for non-OPEC oil supply growth this year by 110,000 bpd to 58.14 million bpd.

Both crude benchmarks have lost all the gains made at the end of a year ago after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed with other big producers to cut output in an effort to prop up prices. Production rose by 12,000 barrels a day to 9.33 million barrels per day. USA crude futures CLc1, meanwhile, were down 3.4 percent to $44.92 a barrel, the lowest intraday level since May 5.

"This fall was led by U.S. tight oil, whose production fell 0.3 Mb/d, a swing of nearly 1 Mb/d relative to growth in 2015". The global benchmark crude ended the session at a premium of $2.24 to August WTI.

Opec now expects United States production to increase by 800,000 barrels per day in 2017.

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